At this stage the horizon is not important rather your subjects. What you must first do is harmonize the value/colors in such a way to designate place of attention. Use the photo as an idea not as a means. You must create your idea and not copy the photo. You can combine cad red, yellow ocher plus white for skin tones and contrast this with variations of blue and raw umber, yellow ocher and white. So, your subjects are the center of attention, next the reflections in the watter of the subject then the water line closest to the subject and last a hint of horizon. If you think along these lines you will be fine.
Paint application. At this stage apply thinly all over. This way your paint will dry quickly and you will be able to make adjustments at will. Do not rush to the finish; let each day give you a fresh look.
I hope this will help.
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