If I recall correctly, the finished portrait of Pope Innocent X was the one Nelson Shanks chose as the best portrait ever painted, in his opinion. I am sure Shanks also studied it intently in preparation for his portrait of John Paul II. I'd trust his knowledge on the subject!
My guess as to what he would say is that it was painted by none other than Juan de Pareja, the model for the compelling portrait now in New York's Metropolitan Museum. Juan de Pareja was originally Velazquez' slave, but he later went on to become an accomplished artist in his own right. Velazquez painted the Juan de Pareja portrait as a warm up for the Innocent X painting. I wonder if Juan de Pareja didn't paint this one as a copy of the finished Innocent X painting that his former master had recently created.
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